Zambia could exceed its national target of 10,000 megawatts of installed electricity generation capacity by 2031, according to energy expert Dr Johnstone Chikwanda. The projection points to significant growth in the country’s power generation sector as Zambia continues to invest in new electricity projects and expand renewable energy capacity. Dr Chikwanda, however, cautioned that reaching the generation capacity target does not automatically mean Zambia will achieve universal access to electricity. He expects the country to make substantial progress towards universal electricity access, but says challenges will remain in connecting all communities and households to reliable power. His assessment highlights the difference between having enough generation capacity and ensuring that electricity reaches people across the country.
Zambia has set an ambitious target of increasing its national installed electricity generation capacity to 10,000 megawatts by 2031. The target forms part of the country’s broader efforts to strengthen energy security, support economic growth and meet rising electricity demand. Having sufficient generation capacity is important for industries, businesses, households and public institutions that depend on reliable power to operate effectively. It can also create room for Zambia to support new investments in mining, manufacturing, agriculture and other productive sectors. Achieving the target would therefore have implications far beyond the electricity sector, particularly if increased generation is matched by adequate transmission and distribution infrastructure.
Recent figures from the Ministry of Energy show that Zambia has already made significant progress towards the 10,000MW objective. The country’s installed electricity generation capacity has increased to 4,576MW from approximately 3,100MW in 2021. This represents an increase of roughly 1,476MW over the period, demonstrating the pace at which Zambia’s generation capacity has expanded in recent years. The growth has been supported by increased investment in different forms of power generation, particularly renewable energy. The figures suggest that Zambia has established a stronger generation base than it had several years ago, although additional investment will be required to reach the 2031 target.
One of the most notable developments has been the rapid expansion of solar power generation. According to the Ministry of Energy, solar generation capacity increased from just 88MW in 2021 to approximately 841MW in 2026. That represents an increase of about 753MW in five years and demonstrates the growing importance of solar energy in Zambia’s electricity mix. The expansion is significant because solar projects can help diversify the country’s generation sources and reduce reliance on a single form of electricity generation. Continued development of solar power could also help Zambia respond to changing electricity demand while supporting efforts to expand access to power in areas where conventional grid infrastructure remains limited.
Speaking during an appearance on Diamond TV’s Breakfast on Monday, Dr Chikwanda said Zambia is likely to surpass the 10,000MW installed capacity target by 2031. His projection reflects the growth already recorded in the sector and the number of electricity projects being developed or planned. The continued expansion of solar generation is particularly important because renewable energy projects can be deployed at different scales, from large utility projects to smaller systems serving specific communities or facilities. If investment continues at the current pace, Zambia could potentially reach or exceed its stated generation capacity target earlier than anticipated. However, achieving this outcome will depend on continued investment, effective project implementation and the availability of infrastructure to transmit the additional electricity.
Dr Chikwanda also made an important distinction between electricity generation capacity and universal access to electricity. While Zambia may have enough installed generation capacity to exceed 10,000MW, this does not necessarily mean every household or community will have access to electricity. Universal access requires extensive transmission and distribution networks, connections to individual households and businesses, reliable infrastructure and affordable electricity services. Remote and sparsely populated communities can be particularly challenging and expensive to connect to the national grid. Zambia will therefore need to continue investing in both generation and the infrastructure required to deliver electricity to communities if it is to move closer to universal access.
The expansion of electricity access is important for Zambia’s social and economic development. Reliable electricity can improve opportunities for businesses, support educational institutions and strengthen healthcare services. Rural communities can benefit from electricity through improved irrigation, agro-processing, refrigeration, communications and other productive activities. Greater access can also reduce reliance on traditional sources of energy and improve living conditions for households. For these benefits to be realised on a national scale, Zambia will need to combine grid expansion with appropriate off-grid and mini-grid solutions in areas where conventional connections are difficult.
The rapid growth of solar generation could play an important role in this process. Solar technology can provide electricity in locations that are far from existing transmission and distribution networks, making it particularly useful for rural electrification. It can also complement other generation sources and help diversify Zambia’s energy system. However, increased solar generation will require appropriate investment in transmission networks, storage solutions and grid management systems to ensure that electricity generated can be effectively integrated into the national power system. Zambia’s energy strategy will therefore need to consider not only how much electricity can be generated but also how reliably that electricity can be delivered when and where it is needed.
The increase from approximately 3,100MW of installed capacity in 2021 to 4,576MW in 2026 shows that Zambia has already made considerable progress. The continued development of solar power is particularly noteworthy because the country is seeking to diversify its electricity generation portfolio. A broader energy mix can strengthen resilience and reduce the risks associated with depending heavily on one generation source. At the same time, Zambia will need to maintain strong planning and investment across the entire electricity value chain. Generation, transmission and distribution must develop together if additional installed capacity is to translate into more reliable electricity for consumers.
Zambia’s projected ability to exceed 10,000MW by 2031 therefore presents an encouraging outlook for the country’s energy sector. Dr Johnstone Chikwanda’s assessment suggests that the generation target is within reach and could potentially be surpassed if current investment and development trends continue. The bigger challenge will be ensuring that increased capacity results in meaningful improvements in electricity access for households, businesses and communities across the country. Continued expansion of transmission and distribution infrastructure, combined with renewable energy development and targeted rural electrification programmes, will be essential. If Zambia can successfully connect its growing generation capacity to more consumers, the progress made towards 10,000MW could become an important foundation for broader economic development and significant improvements in electricity access by 2031.